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Trade Updates - 12/31/08 -



BULLISH Trade Updates

symbol: BAP -(Credicorp Ltd. )-

closing price: 49.96, today's change: +1.45, stop loss: 46.24 *new*

Picked on December 20 at $46.69 
Change since picked:     + 3.27   			
Earnings Date          02/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       379 thousand    

The rally in BAP picked up a little speed today. Shares gained almost 3% and stopped right at round-number, psychological resistance at the $50.00 mark. More conservative traders may want to take some gains off the table right here. If there was a spot for BAP to pause and retrace then this is it - right under resistance. I'm going to adjust the stop loss to $46.24, which is just under Monday's low.

We are changing our target from $52.50 to $51.50 due to the falling 100-dma, which is likely to be technical resistance.


symbol: LMT -( Lockheed Martin )-

closing price: 84.08, today's change: -0.21, stop loss: 79.95 *new*

Picked on December 20 at $80.01 
Change since picked:     + 4.07   			
Earnings Date          01/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.0 million     

Target achieved. LMT rallied toward $85.00 and tried to breakout over this round-number, psychological level several times. The intraday high was $84.97. Our first target to take profits was $84.85. I suspect that LMT may pull back from here with a dip toward the $82-81 zone. We are raising our stop loss to $79.95.

I have listed two targets. Our first target is $84.85. My second target is $88.00. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $90.00 target but it also shows potential resistance near $83-84. (Bookkeeping note: options suggested were the January $80 or $85 calls)

-chart-


symbol: PFG -( Principal Fincl. Group )-

closing price: 22.57, today's change: +1.08, stop loss: 19.85 *new*

Picked on December 20 at $20.31 
Change since picked:     + 2.26   			
Earnings Date          02/09/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.9 million     

More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table. Our bullish play in PFG is up more than 11%. I am raising the stop loss to $19.85. I would not open new positions at this time.

Our target is $24.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $31.00 target but it also shows some resistance in the $24-25 zone.


symbol: PJC -( Piper Jaffray )-

closing price: 39.76, today's change: +0.36, stop loss: 35.45 *new*

Picked on December 20 at $36.93 
Change since picked:     + 2.83   			
Earnings Date          01/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       291 thousand    

Shares of PJC shot to a new six-week high on Wednesday. Unfortunately, the rally stalled and eventually reversed under the early November highs near $41.50. The late-day sell-off doesn't bode well and might suggest a short-term top. I would expect a pull back. As a precaution I'm raising the stop loss to $35.45. I would not suggest new bullish positions here.

The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $53 target. We're not quite that optimistic. We're using two targets. Out first target is $39.95. Our second target is $43.50.

Options suggested were the January $35 or $40 calls.


BEARISH Play Updates

symbol: IWM -( iShares Russell 2000 )-

closing price: 49.24, today's change: +1.12, stop loss: 48.05

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see Trigger
Change since picked:     + 0.00 
Average Daily Volume:        81 million        			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 n/a

Small caps continue to rebound after Monday's bounce from the $46.00 level. The IWM has rallied straight toward resistance near $50.00. A failed rally from here would do a lot to reconfirm the downtrend. A breakout could spark another wave of short covering and bargain shoppers. Fortunately, we are still on the sidelines. Our suggested entry point is to open bearish positions at $45.80. More aggressive traders might want to consider positions here with a stop above today's high.

If we are triggered at $45.80 our first target to exit and take profits is $41.00. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the November lows near $37.50.


symbol: WYNN -( Wynn Resorts )-

closing price: 42.26, today's change: +0.05, stop loss: 43.01

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see Trigger
Change since picked:     + 0.00 
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million        			
Earnings Date          02/12/09 (unconfirmed)    

Shares of WYNN appear to be asleep at the wheel. The stock is not participating in the market's widespread rally, which is good news for the bears. When the rally finally runs out of steam then WYNN is likely to resume its trend lower. We are still waiting for the stock to hit our entry point.

Currently our suggested trigger to open bearish positions is $39.85. If triggered our first target to take profits is $35.50. We're also listing a secondary target at $32.00.


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

symbol: AMAT -( Applied Materials )-

closing price: 10.13, today's change: -0.02, stop loss: 10.26 *new*

Picked on December 23 at $ 9.72
Change since picked:     + 0.41   			
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million     			
Earnings Date          02/10/09 (unconfirmed) 

The year-end short-covering rally in tech stocks continued and AMAT hit our stop loss at $10.26 closing the play. AMAT spiked toward technical resistance at its 50-dma and then retreated. I would keep AMAT on your watch list to see if shares roll over again.

-chart-


symbol: AVP -( Avon Products )-

closing price: 24.03, today's change: +0.60, stop loss: 23.55

Picked on December 23 at $22.46 
Change since picked:     + 1.57  
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million     			
Earnings Date          02/05/09 (unconfirmed) 

AVP was also caught up in the widespread market rally. Maybe bears were spooked by yesterday's breakout over the 50-dma, which should have been resistance. Whatever the reason AVP rallied right past resistance at $24.00 and hit our stop loss at $23.55 along the way.

-chart-


symbol: CMI -( Cummins Inc. )-

closing price: 26.73, today's change: +1.20, stop loss: 26.05

Picked on December 29 at $24.48 /gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 2.25 /originally listed at $24.27
Average Daily Volume:       3.6 million        			
Earnings Date          01/30/09 (unconfirmed)    

It looks like the breakdown under support near $24.25 was a bear trap. CMI has quickly reversed and now shares are breaking out over what has been consistent resistance at the 50-dma. Today's rally in CMI could spark another wave of short covering. The stock hit our stop loss at $26.05 closing the play.

-chart-




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