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Trade Updates - 12/30/08 -



BULLISH Trade Updates

symbol: BAP -(Credicorp Ltd. )-

closing price: 48.51, today's change: +1.22, stop loss: 45.75

Picked on December 20 at $46.69 
Change since picked:     + 1.82   			
Earnings Date          02/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       379 thousand    

BAP is still marching higher. Traders bought the late day dip around $47.40, which happened to be near the rising 10-dma. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to up their stop loss toward the $46.00 level.

There is potential resistance at $50.00 but we're aiming for the $52.50 mark, underneath technical resistance at its descending 100-dma. Technical trades will be interested to note that the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $66 target.


symbol: LMT -( Lockheed Martin )-

closing price: 84.29, today's change: +3.75, stop loss: 77.90

Picked on December 20 at $80.01 
Change since picked:     + 4.28   			
Earnings Date          01/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.0 million     

LMT really shined on Tuesday with a strong rally and closing at new six-week highs. Odds are good that shares will hit our first target at $84.85 tomorrow.

I have listed two targets. Our first target is $84.85. My second target is $88.00. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $90.00 target but it also shows potential resistance near $83-84. (Bookkeeping note: options suggested were the January $80 or $85 calls)


symbol: PFG -( Principal Fincl. Group )-

closing price: 21.49, today's change: +2.47, stop loss: 17.99

Picked on December 20 at $20.31 
Change since picked:     + 1.18   			
Earnings Date          02/09/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.9 million     

Tuesday ended up being a very good day for bulls in PFG. The stock soared past the $20.00 mark and closed near six-week highs. This should put the bears on the run.

Our target is $24.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $31.00 target but it also shows some resistance in the $24-25 zone.


symbol: PJC -( Piper Jaffray )-

closing price: 39.40, today's change: +2.89, stop loss: 34.95 *new*

Picked on December 20 at $36.93 
Change since picked:     + 2.47   			
Earnings Date          01/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       291 thousand    

We are finally starting to see some upward momentum in PJC. The stock charged to new relative highs today and closed near its highs for the session. We are raising the stop loss to $34.95.

The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $53 target. We're not quite that optimistic. We're using two targets. Out first target is $39.95. Our second target is $43.50.

FYI: Instead of buying the stock you could buy some January call options. The January $40 (PJC-AH) are going for $1.95 a piece. The January $35s (PJC-AG) are trading at $4.80. When the stock hits our target take profits in your option position.


BEARISH Play Updates

symbol: AMAT -( Applied Materials )-

closing price: 10.15, today's change: +0.35, stop loss: 10.26 *new*

Picked on December 23 at $ 9.72
Change since picked:     + 0.43   			
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million     			
Earnings Date          02/10/09 (unconfirmed) 

It was a close call today. AMAT rallied to an intraday high of $10.25 before pulling back. While the general trend for AMAT is down I am concerned that some short covering before the year ends combined with light volume might stop us out early. Given today's close over $10.00 I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit early.

We have two targets. Our first target is $8.75. Our second target is $8.15. I do expect some support near $8.50.


symbol: AVP -( Avon Products )-

closing price: 23.43, today's change: +0.93, stop loss: 23.55

Picked on December 23 at $22.46 
Change since picked:     + 0.97  
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million     			
Earnings Date          02/05/09 (unconfirmed) 

Uh-oh! We may be in trouble here. It looks like the bears panicked and short covering pushed AVP back above technical resistance at its 50-dma. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider closing their positions right here. The intraday high was $23.44 and if stocks continue to rally on Wednesday I would expect to be stopped out.

You could argue that AVP might have some support near $22.00 so more conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $22.00 to open positions. Our first target is $20.25. Traders should close most of the position here since the $20.00 mark may be round-number support. I am going to set an aggressive target at $18.75.

FYI: You could use the January put options to leverage AVP's move. Suggested options were the January $22.50 put (symbol:AVP-MX) or the January $20 put (symbol:AVP-MD). Close out your put positions when AVP hits our target.


symbol: CMI -( Cummins Inc. )-

closing price: 25.53, today's change: +1.26, stop loss: 26.05

Picked on December 29 at $24.48 /gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 1.05 /originally listed at $24.27
Average Daily Volume:       3.6 million        			
Earnings Date          01/30/09 (unconfirmed)    

I have to issue a warning here too. CMI rebounded sharply and the stock managed to close over technical resistance at its 50-dma. Shares actually gapped open higher affecting our entry. This is a warning sign for the bears. Given today's close more conservative traders will want to consider an early exit. I would wait for a decline back under $24.50 before considering bearish positions. Our first target is $20.50. Our second target is $18.50. The November low was $17.70.


symbol: IWM -( iShares Russell 2000 )-

closing price: 48.12, today's change: +1.30, stop loss: 48.05

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see Trigger
Change since picked:     + 0.00 
Average Daily Volume:        81 million        			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 n/a

The small caps were also caught up in the broad-market rally. The IWM managed to rally past its 50-dma. This is not a good sign for the bears. We are still waiting for a breakdown under recent support so for the time being we're just spectators.

I am suggesting that readers short the IWM with a trigger to open positions at $45.80, which would be a new two-week low. If triggered our first target to exit and take profits is $41.00. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the November lows near $37.50.


symbol: WYNN -( Wynn Resorts )-

closing price: 42.21, today's change: +0.31, stop loss: 43.01

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see Trigger
Change since picked:     + 0.00 
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million        			
Earnings Date          02/12/09 (unconfirmed)    

WYNN continued to churn sideways in a narrow range. It's worth noting that while the stock was positive on the day shares did under perform the S&P 500. Currently we're still waiting on a breakdown.

If we see a failed rally near $45.00 take it but until then our official entry point will be a breakdown under $40.00 with a trigger at $39.85. If triggered at $39.85 our first target to take profits is $35.50. We're also listing a secondary target at $32.00.


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

symbol: DIA -( DIAMONDS )-

closing price: 86.68, today's change: +1.77, stop loss: 86.05

Picked on December 29 at $85.25 /gap open higher
Change since picked:     + 1.43 /originally listed at $84.91
Average Daily Volume:        27 million        			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 n/a

Our bearish bet on the Dow Jones Industrial Average via the DIA did not last long. Shares of the DIA actually gapped open higher at $85.25 affecting our entry point. Then the DIA proceeded to rally through the $86.00 level and hit our stop loss closing this trade. I think this low volume environment are letting some holiday bulls run the table.




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