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Trade Updates - 12/29/08 -



BULLISH Trade Updates

symbol: BAP -(Credicorp Ltd. )-

closing price: 47.29, today's change: -0.56, stop loss: 45.75 *new*

Picked on December 20 at $46.69 
Change since picked:     + 0.60   			
Earnings Date          02/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       379 thousand    

BAP dipped toward its 10-dma again and this time it broke it but only on an intraday basis. When the market began to bounce late this afternoon BAP followed. Unfortunately, the last two days has not done much for the stock's momentum indicators. BAP may be setting up for a retest of the $44.00 level, which would stop us out. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to up their stop loss toward the $46.00 level. I will move the stop to $45.75 so if BAP does correct we get stopped out pretty quick.

There is potential resistance at $50.00 but we're aiming for the $52.50 mark, underneath technical resistance at its descending 100-dma. Technical trades will be interested to note that the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $66 target.


symbol: LMT -( Lockheed Martin )-

closing price: 80.54, today's change: -0.57, stop loss: 77.90 *new*

Picked on December 20 at $80.01 
Change since picked:     - 0.53   			
Earnings Date          01/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.0 million     

The stock market was slipping lower most of the day and LMT dipped under the $80.00 level again. Shares of LMT recovered but like most stocks I'm seeing these days the upward momentum is fading. The pattern on LMT is still bullish but it is hard to trust recent moves due to the holiday-thin volume. I am adjusting the stop loss to $77.90. The rising 10-dma near $79.00 should offer some support. If not then we have the 50-dma near $77.96.

I have listed two targets. Our first target is $84.85. My second target is $88.00. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $90.00 target but it also shows potential resistance near $83-84. (Bookkeeping note: options suggested were the January $80 or $85 calls)


symbol: PFG -( Principal Fincl. Group )-

closing price: 19.02, today's change: -0.47, stop loss: 17.99

Picked on December 20 at $20.31 
Change since picked:     - 1.29   			
Earnings Date          02/09/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.9 million     

Friday's performance was worrisome. Today's action on PFG is worse. The stock lost 2.4% and under performed the S&P 500. The stock is still finding support at its 50-dma just above the $18.00 level but for how much longer? PFG has not been able to shake off the bearish short-term trend of lower highs. More conservative traders may want to cut their losses now. If PFG doesn't rally over $19.60 soon I will exit early. At this point I would not consider new bullish positions until PFG broke through the $20.00 mark again. A breakdown under $18.00 may end up being a good entry point for bearish positions.

Our target is $24.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $31.00 target but it also shows some resistance in the $24-25 zone.


symbol: PJC -( Piper Jaffray )-

closing price: 36.51, today's change: -1.13, stop loss: 33.95

Picked on December 20 at $36.93 
Change since picked:     - 0.42   			
Earnings Date          01/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       291 thousand    

PJC also under performed the S&P 500. Shares fell toward technical support at the 200-dma near $35.35 and bounced. The stock closed with a 3% loss. Bigger picture the breakout from six days ago is still bullish and PJC is just digesting the move. If you drill down into an intraday chart you can actually see a short-term bullish trend of higher lows. More conservative traders might want to raise their stops toward the $35.00 level. As a matter of fact I'm going to move our stop to $34.45.

The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $53 target. We're not quite that optimistic. We're using two targets. Out first target is $39.95. Our second target is $43.50.

FYI: Instead of buying the stock you could buy some January call options. The January $40 (PJC-AH) are going for $1.95 a piece. The January $35s (PJC-AG) are trading at $4.80. When the stock hits our target take profits in your option position.


BEARISH Play Updates

symbol: AMAT -( Applied Materials )-

closing price: 9.80, today's change: +0.11, stop loss: 10.26 *new*

Picked on December 23 at $ 9.72
Change since picked:     + 0.08   			
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million     			
Earnings Date          02/10/09 (unconfirmed) 

AMAT is going nowhere fast if you just look at the last three days. If you take a step back the trend has turned bearish. Today's bounce is meaningless. Look for any bounce to fail near $10.00 and use such a move as a new entry point for shorts. I am lowering the stop loss to $10.26, which is just above last Tuesday's high.

We have two targets. Our first target is $8.75. Our second target is $8.15. I do expect some support near $8.50.


symbol: AVP -( Avon Products )-

closing price: 22.50, today's change: -0.18, stop loss: 23.55 *new*

Picked on December 23 at $22.46 
Change since picked:     + 0.04  
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million     			
Earnings Date          02/05/09 (unconfirmed) 

AVP continues to drift lower. The 50-dma near $23.35 should offer some overhead technical resistance. Therefore I'm lowering the stop loss to $23.55. I don't see any changes from my previous comments.

You could argue that AVP might have some support near $22.00 so more conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $22.00 to open positions. Our first target is $20.25. Traders should close most of the position here since the $20.00 mark may be round-number support. I am going to set an aggressive target at $18.75.

FYI: You could use the January put options to leverage AVP's move. Suggested options were the January $22.50 put (symbol:AVP-MX) or the January $20 put (symbol:AVP-MD). Close out your put positions when AVP hits our target.


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

symbol: JNPR -( Juniper Networks )-

closing price: 17.13, today's change: +0.20, stop loss: 17.25

Picked on December 23 at $16.82 /stopped out @ 17.25
Change since picked:     + 0.31   			
Average Daily Volume:       9.2 million     			
Earnings Date          01/22/09 (unconfirmed) 

JNPR saw a sharp intraday spike Monday morning that pushed shares to $17.44. That was more than enough to hit our stop loss at $17.25 and close the play. It's possible that JNPR has been building some kind of bull-flag pattern. A rally past $17.50 may end up being a bullish entry point. I would keep JNPR on your watch list for a move over $17.50, which might be a bullish entry, or a breakdown under $16.25-16.00, which may be a bearish entry point.

-chart-




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