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Trade Updates - 12/27/08 -



BULLISH Trade Updates

symbol: BAP -(Credicorp Ltd. )-

closing price: 47.85, today's change: -0.43, stop loss: 44.90

Picked on December 20 at $46.69 
Change since picked:     + 1.16   			
Earnings Date          02/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       379 thousand    

Shares of Peruvian bank, BAP, bounced around in a $2.00 range on Friday with a rebound from rising support at its 10-dma. The short-term trend is still up and now that it has tested the 10-dma then maybe BAP can start making some progress higher. We don't see any changes to our previous comments.

There is potential resistance at $50.00 but we're aiming for the $52.50 mark, underneath technical resistance at its descending 100-dma. Technical trades will be interested to note that the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $66 target.


symbol: LMT -( Lockheed Martin )-

closing price: 81.11, today's change: +1.89, stop loss: 77.49

Picked on December 20 at $80.01 
Change since picked:     + 1.10   			
Earnings Date          01/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.0 million     

LMT displayed relative strength with another rally on Friday, out performing the broader market. Shares rallied past the $80 level again. If you were waiting for a breakout as your entry point we just got it.

We have listed two targets. Our first target is $84.85. Our second target is $88.00. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $90.00 target but it also shows potential resistance near $83-84. (Bookkeeping note: options suggested were the January $80 or $85 calls)


symbol: PFG -( Principal Fincl. Group )-

closing price: 19.49, today's change: +0.38, stop loss: 17.99

Picked on December 20 at $20.31 
Change since picked:     - 0.82   			
Earnings Date          02/09/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.9 million     

I am growing more concerned over PFG's up trend. The stock tried to rally twice on Friday and both times it failed under the $19.60 level. Thus far technical support at the 50-dma is holding. I was expecting a dip toward $18.25 but it hasn't happened yet. Look for a new rise over $20.00 or a new bounce from the $18.00 level as a bullish entry point to buy PFG.

Our target is $24.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $31.00 target but it also shows some resistance in the $24-25 zone.


symbol: PJC -( Piper Jaffray )-

closing price: 37.64, today's change: +0.45, stop loss: 33.95

Picked on December 20 at $36.93 
Change since picked:     + 0.71   			
Earnings Date          01/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       291 thousand    

PFJ broke out past short-term resistance at $38.00 on Friday morning but it failed to hold it. This move almost looks like a very short-term top. We can probably expect another dip toward the 200-dma again. Wait for the bounce before considering new bullish positions.

The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $53 target. We're not quite that optimistic. We're using two targets. Out first target is $39.95. Our second target is $43.50.

FYI: Instead of buying the stock you could buy some January call options. The January $40 (PJC-AH) are going for $1.95 a piece. The January $35s (PJC-AG) are trading at $4.80. When the stock hits our target take profits in your option position.


BEARISH Play Updates

symbol: AMAT -( Applied Materials )-

closing price: 9.69, today's change: -0.14, stop loss: 10.51

Picked on December 23 at $ 9.72
Change since picked:     - 0.03   			
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million     			
Earnings Date          02/10/09 (unconfirmed) 

AMAT is slowly inching lower. I would still consider new bearish positions in AMAT here or you could wait for another failed rally near $10.00. The semiconductor index (SOX) is flirting with a breakdown under the 200 level and its MACD, like AMAT's, is turning negative.

More conservative traders may want to use a stop just above Tuesday's high ($10.24). We have two targets. Our first target is $8.75. Our second target is $8.15. I do expect some support near $8.50.


symbol: AVP -( Avon Products )-

closing price: 22.68, today's change: +0.05, stop loss: 24.05

Picked on December 23 at $22.46 
Change since picked:     + 0.22  
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million     			
Earnings Date          02/05/09 (unconfirmed) 

AVP is drifting sideways but it's doing so with a bearish trend of lower highs. I don't see any changes from my previous comments. This is still an entry point to open bearish positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop loss closer to the simple 50-dma. The 50-dma should act as overhead technical resistance.

You could argue that AVP might have some support near $22.00 so more conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $22.00 to open positions. Our first target is $20.25. Traders should close most of the position here since the $20.00 mark may be round-number support. I am going to set an aggressive target at $18.75.

FYI: You could use the January put options to leverage AVP's move. The January $22.50 put (symbol: AVP-MX) is going for $1.20. The January $20.00 put (AVP-MD) is at $0.40. Close out your put positions when AVP hits our target.


symbol: JNPR -( Juniper Networks )-

closing price: 16.93, today's change: -0.10, stop loss: 17.25

Picked on December 23 at $16.82
Change since picked:     + 0.11   			
Average Daily Volume:       9.2 million     			
Earnings Date          01/22/09 (unconfirmed) 

Shares of JNPR are just drifting in the wind as volume comes to a standstill. The short-term trend of lower highs and lower lows is bearish. The intraday high today failed to break the $17.20 level, which might be a good sign for the bears. More conservative traders may want to see a new move under $16.50 before initiating positions.

I would consider this a higher-risk play because the technical picture is a mixed bag. Our first target is $15.25. Our second target is $14.25.





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